Before the 2009 financial crisis more than a decade, I have, on various occasions, repeatedly referred to the saying that the actual development of our Chinese port industry, surpassing the previous owner of the most optimistic forecasts, and ten years , year after year. [dopts id="207"] Why most optimistic prediction is actually ultimately proved too conservative? The answer to this question, from the traditional idea of ​​strategic management and planning, is too inconclusive, but must ecological (Strategic Ecology) the strategic point of view, from a bigger system boundary, stakeholders from the cluster and Evolution path for system identification and recognition strategies, and thus come to the guidance of traditional strategic planning and forecasting in order to obtain a more realistic conclusion in the future. I think, eco-Chinese strategic port in the past three decades can be highly summarized as the following three aspects, namely:

1. INSTITUTIONAL BONUS
2. DIVIDENDS OF GLOBALIZATION
3. TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS BONUS

INSTITUTIONAL BONUS Dividends are institutionalized in terms of two levels. China's reform and opening up the institutionalization of dividends, which is well known. I'm talking about here is institutionalized dividend Chinese port system reform brought institutionalized dividends. Thirty-five years of reform and opening up, China port system has gone through four major stages of development. [dopts id="206"]

1. The first stage is the beginning of reform and opening up, basically from 1979 to 1984, the country's main port is mainly the Ministry of Transportation for management, supplemented by local, joint leadership. This period of reform and opening main focus is changing to address historical debts, the original social development, there is considerable inertia forces. The biggest problem at this stage, the pressure is serious in Hong Kong, a serious shortage of port capacity, single investment system, restricted the development of production capacity. Increasingly urgent need for reform, reform ideas conclude that the three-step, the port below, separating the social capital. This three-step laid a Chinese port after three important stage of reform and development.
2. The second stage is from 1984, counting from the time the basic 2001, its main core is the "port down", the main port to the local administration, the Ministry of Transportation, supplemented by a large number of industries and attract foreign investment capital, diversification port investment has taken shape, the basic port capacity to adapt to the needs of economic development.
3. The third phase of the capital from 2001, China joined the WTO began to reckon, to complete all major ports "separating" So far, about 2003. This is a preparation phase in the new developments. Without this fundamental reform, there will be the next Chinese port of social capital.
4. The last stage is the social capital of Chinese ports, the overall sense can be said that since 2003, so far, China's coastal PSA, are basically already underway or in part, in the capital markets to complete the transformation of social capital, China became a public company on the stock market, almost without exception, to the extent possible foreign counterparts shocked us to the point. This process, the earliest pioneer of western Shenzhen Harbour, Shenzhen Chiwan Wharf Holdings took the lead in China in May 1993 became the first port in the history of securities of listed companies, is followed closely by China Merchants Port Service in July of that year he became China's capital market the second port listed companies.[dopts id="165"] Therefore, the Chinese port of social capital, the earliest date from 1993, but the time of the formation of the trend began in 2003 after the completion of about separating from. It can be said that no Chinese port of social capital, there is no us and of economic development today, and moderate advance, good governance and the management health pattern of Chinese ports.

In general, the development of Chinese ports, substantially synchronized with China's economic development, and generally modest advance, a good impetus to China's economic development, China can gain dividends of globalization, it has laid a solid infrastructure.

DIVIDENDS OF GLOBALIZATION Let us not forget that 35 years of China's economic take-off of the first engine, foreign trade and related investment. Reform and opening up, the consumer is in a shortage economy, the nature of the shortage economy to mid-nineties been fundamentally resolved. At the same time, investment-led basically revolves around the development needs of foreign trade, the lack of domestic funds, only actively encourage foreign investment in all investment basically operates on the principle according to commercial. Foreign trade and investment related to the concept of the nineties after being replaced by globalization and, therefore, can be said that globalization is China's economic take-off the engine first. We are accustomed to the "troika," saying that the recent central economic work for the future definition of the Troika also unlike in previous years, the basic role of the consumer, the key role of investment and exports supporting role. This is the future judgment is very correct, but the best summary of the past could be: progressive role of consumption, the basic role of investment, boosting the role of exports. Globalization to the Chinese economy has brought a very big bonus, but to China's shipping industry to bring the dividends are even more impressive. World maritime industry, including global port throughput, maritime traffic, fleet, shipbuilding and ship repair, the "China factor" proportion of the world's shipping industry as a whole more than a third, and no other country can be half that of China . A hundred years ago, two-thirds of the global maritime industry and the Atlantic Ocean, whereas now, two-thirds of the global maritime industry and the Pacific related. Economies around the Pacific, accounting for half of the GDP and 40% of global trade, which is the basic strategy of ecological Chinese ports are facing, produce positive business development for the Chinese port of pulling effect in the past 35 years in the process of globalization in the last two decades to Chinese ports has brought enormous changes.

TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS BONUS In this context of globalization, the right to grasp the opportunity, ocean port harbor strong achievements accommodating. Related supporting industries of Chinese ports, such as ports and port handling machinery engineering, including shipbuilding and container manufacture, are synchronized or called ahead to become the world's top technical and business scale in a broad sense, and in turn to Chinese ports rapid development of a solid support.This "positive feedback" (positive loop) industry environment, the Chinese port development process unique advantages, an overview of the history of the world's shipping industry, no time or what the state can be compared. To sum up, so to speak, the reform of the system of internal and external historical opportunity, the port hard work and ingenuity of people is a basic strategic ecology Chinese ports during the past three decades in the development process. Looking to the future, I think the Chinese port of strategic ecological environment will change gradually beginning to show, without talking major strategic port industry ecology over the next decade, I will list some of the immediate problems and challenges faced by China port industry, the industry have also With some basic consensus that these provoke us to deeper thinking.

First, economic growth slowed down, large ships to port with a great confusion, especially in waterways and maritime management capacity, rapid increase in labor costs also deepened the industry's anxiety.

1. SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH
2. ULTRA LARGE CONTAINER VESSELS
3. RAPID RISE IN LABOR COSTS

SLOWING ECONOMIC GROWTH Overall global economy has entered a period of slow growth, in a flat plateau on Globalization run. Chinese economy due to the combined effects of internal and external factors, but also entered a "structural adjustment, promote transformation," the adjustment process. I use two theories to illustrate the problem. [expand title="Read On" swaptitle="Close"]

1. First, import and export growth rate of China's GDP growth from the previous to 2 times, a gradual transition to slightly higher than the GDP growth, the ratio between GDP growth and was close to the global average. The growth rate of world trade is generally more than the world's economic growth, more than the proportion of generally 30-50% range; the world's shipping capacity growth rate is generally lower than or close to the growth rate of world trade; world container shipping volume the growth rate is usually slightly higher than the growth rate of world trade; and the world container throughput growth rate is generally 2 times the world growth rate of freight traffic.
2. Second, an increase of China's port container throughput from the previous two times the growth rate of import and export, and gradually transition to the present, only 50% of China's import and export growth. It should be particularly noted that, due to the continuous improvement of China's import and export value-added, the average value per case increased significantly over the past decade the average cumulative rate has increased more than 50% rise compared to the value of a single box of northern Guangdong region more big, so even though in the appropriate box rates rising, the number of million dollars generated by the trade of container producing coefficient was significantly reduced. Bound by this factor, the ratio between Chinese port container throughput growth rate and the growth rate of import and export, there is a considerable gap between the need for additional explanation.

These two theories can be superimposed together, the conclusion we may already have the answer. China's economy is undergoing a structural change period, the port is no exception.

ULTRA LARGE CONTAINER VESSELS Currently, we easily put two "large-scale", that large-scale container ships and large-scale alliance, say together, referred to two large-scale. In fact, I think these are two entirely different things, for the port, the challenges posed by large ships, than large-scale alliance is much more important, a large coalition of business belonging to the ecological problems of the maritime supply chain, I also it comes back.

Due to large ships to break the limits and norms, bring a lot of confusion to the Chinese port operational, Chinese industry authorities is a positive response, the port industry are also actively preparing for the main waterway is the ability to plan, reinforcing the pier foundation, improve performance handling equipment to ensure the efficiency of loading and unloading. China's port container terminal capacity of hardware facilities, and Europe as a whole is better than the other ports in the world, the world in addition to North Asia, Europe and America for port Large Container Ships, basically in indifference, which will offset the large ships brought to benefit, and ultimately makes large ships by limits to growth constraints.

RAPID RISE IN LABOR COSTS Over the past decade, labor costs in China's coastal areas mainly about six times before. Of course, this does not mean that wages are now six times a decade ago, the proportion of labor costs account for wages, declining decade, now has less than half the average. With the changes in China's population structure, the labor force must assume a greater burden on society, the trend for a long period of time will not be eased.

To maintain social stability, and makes the elderly and vulnerable people to share the benefits of economic growth, China is trying to build a universal social security system, the security system will eventually cover the entire population, in order to completely eliminate the "dual" system structure of society, ready material. In the past 20 years, the establishment of this security system is essentially borne by labor costs, the common commitment to corporate and individuals. Transfer payments such a large time span, in essence, is to add a tax of employees feeling is that the tax burden for their own long-term interests in the future. Thus the conclusion that the rise in labor costs will not be eased. Port Enterprises must be high-quality growth and intellectual growth mode, to seek all win result of social, business and employees. China three main challenges facing the port industry mentioned above, the external things, is the outermost boundary of the system. In this industry ecosystem inside the boundary will be how to do?

First, economic growth slowed down, large ships to port with a great confusion, especially in waterways and maritime management capacity, rapid increase in labor costs also deepened the industry's anxiety.

1. THE DIRECTION OF GLOBALIZATION
2. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND BIG DATA ERA
3. ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS
4. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HONG KONG CITY
5. MARITIME SUPPLY CHAIN RESTRUCTURING
6. IMPROVE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

THE DIRECTION OF GLOBALIZATION Mutual development and evolution of human history, its essence is the "non-zero sum" game. Although there is a correlation campaign like the "zero-sum" game, but interacting with each other, learn from each other, learn together, covenant alliance laid the basic development and evolutionary trajectory of human civilization, which ultimately makes the human race became the masters of the earth, it has become a the world of "quasi-God", it is "non-zero sum" game results.

The process of globalization is a "non-zero sum" game, is a None-zero game, although the win-win fewer parties involved do not know anyone, but in the end, all parties are winners, and therefore is an unstoppable trend. There was a time, had heard the arguments about globalization pessimistic, even when it comes to "de-globalization" trend, I think, this is not in line with the general trend of human development. Of course, this does not mean that the future of globalization will continue along the road the past two decades. If we say that China's 2001 accession to WTO marks China to embrace the era of globalization, then the next milestone on similar non-TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement) is none other than that the future of the 21st century, "Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership agreement "may be just as important as WTO. It is possible to create a platform for regional economic and trade cooperation for economic development in the new century trend of high standards, and so will have a profound impact on the Asia-Pacific region, and global trade patterns. In the past, globalization is mainly at the level of diffusion points and lines, we feel the intensity will be relatively high, and the future will gradually flattening and homogenizing, may not be so strong we feel, but the form and quality on there will be great progress. China's economic future is also a move towards planarization process of urbanization and economic gradient flatten, in essence, is an economy to planarization process. Trade and production fragmentation, by its very nature is a reflection of the economic plane. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND BIG DATA ERA Whether it is a country, or a business, graphic trend and requirements continue to enhance the transparency of economic management operations. Rules to follow, which will have transparency, which is the most basic part of the produce of transparency, this alone is not enough.

Future trends in planarization, transparency mainly rely on the support of information technology and big data. For example, the national security of the United States needs to "Prism" program to the whole society for the US government completely transparent. Technological advances in the new era will no longer appear to upgrading hardware, and more based on the information and data to influence the large trade and logistics business model and gain technological progress bonus. Electricity supplier, trade fragmentation, the financial network, and convenient payments, cross-border transactions, etc., are increasingly affecting our business model. Logistics information systems and big data era will be a flexible system, use information to reduce costs and gain business development. Manufacturing nature new industrial era on a flexible logistics system; and a flexible logistics system is also in circulation and commercial basis; commercial and financial integration will be gradually integrated. Traditional industry boundaries, because the large data will be created by the information age, become blurred; the relationship between business and customer, because the application of information technology and big data, and become closer.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS Now fog and haze has given us a Chinese society had a deep shadow, so we went to the non-declaration of war is not the point. Serious environmental pollution also shows that we have entered the post-industrial era, the transition to the new-type industrialization is imminent.

Environmental constraints not only refers to the impact on our weather haze, also including land use, road traffic, waste time and other constraints. Environmental protection, convenient, low-cost logistics system is the best way to address these constraints.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HONG KONG CITY

Historically, the role of port commerce handling is much larger than its role as cargo, Shanghai Shiliupu dock on the Thames in London, is true, but it has been the port city of symbiosis. Economic development and industrialization, so that the port and the city produced the first separation, the port began to build in the sea, such as Shanghai Waigaoqiao, or the United Kingdom Felixstowe (Felixtowe).

Economic globalization, large ships and large patterns of industrialization and promote the port city had a second separation, Yangshan Deepwater Port is one of the best examples around us. Subject of Urban Planning call this phenomenon "Port Dynamics (Port Dynamics)", the "urban dynamics (Urban Dynamics)" special evolution. Similar port city separated stories that we in other Chinese ports, such as Dalian, Qingdao, Xiamen, Shekou, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang, have met for the Chinese port development is concerned, there is a certain inevitability. Sunshine City is a separation process of value creation, if you can stand a higher strategic level, full planning, operational skill, then the city will be able to achieve economic, ports and terminals business employees all win.

MARITIME SUPPLY CHAIN RESTRUCTURING

The moment, the Union is a large-scale popular big topic. In fact, throughout the history of one hundred years of conferences, you will not strange, large-scale alliance is a trend over the past hundred years. For port enterprises, large-scale alliance caused by thinking more derived from recombinant maritime supply chain.

Due to large ships, channel constraints, reduce costs, improve service and other aspects of the density of the ocean constantly optimize the supply chain requirements. This requirement will be with me just mention ecological trends to strategic aspects, but more significant urgent. Undoubtedly, the maritime supply chain restructuring will have a profound impact on the port enterprises. Identify their position in a changing pattern, the hinterland of Hong Kong Ye Hao, Ye Hao transshipment port, hub or, feeder port or, provided that they meet the overall supply chain to reduce shipping costs, can be based on the long term.

IMPROVE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

China's financial media like to discuss GDP and fiscal revenue like the topic, do not like to discuss labor productivity, it never reported the change in Chinese labor productivity. US labor productivity indicators once published, will be the day of the stock market reaction. China's stock market on our labor productivity do not care, nor reaction. For countries, the average labor productivity is full added value created by society, here is full of all personnel in the post of labor, the labor force is created by GDP, rather than GDP per capita society. The same social added value, assuming that the total population will remain unchanged from 35% of the population created, with 70 percent of the population created, though it is the same per capita GDP, but this is two completely different countries, with two totally different revenue structure and lifestyle. The former high-income countries, life relaxed and creative; the latter is the low-income countries, busy and do not have time to learn. China from the latter to the former, the indicators in the leading role is very important. For a business, labor productivity per employee is the business created by Maori. Improve labor productivity, we will naturally focus on upgrading the skills of employees, increasing training, continuous mechanization, automation and information technology. Many Chinese port enterprises started to pay attention now automated or semi-automated handling equipment, such as the RMG (RMG) semi-automatic or automatic reform, it is a good start. Improve labor productivity, simply, it is to increase molecular weight and reduce the volume of the denominator. This formula is very simple, but it can lead the change. For countries, only paying attention to labor productivity, "adjusting structure, promoting transformation" will have the right to guide the direction. For businesses, only managers are beginning to pay attention to labor productivity, labor costs have a reference system, the role of the guidance value of labor productivity, will ultimately win business and employees.

CONCLUSION

That's my strategy for the next decade, China Ecological ports basic judgment. My judgment is not necessarily correct, these raised everyone's thinking. Each port has its own pier and different situations in the next decade, the ecological environment change strategies are not the same, so the opportunities are different. A wise port enterprises, will follow the development trend of ecological strategy, the use of means of capital expansion and investment, proactive transformation. Learn wisdom, means good use of capital expansion and investment, it has the ability to change the future. When learning how to develop wisdom, how to use the capital to achieve the transformation initiative, I'm just talking about ecological strategy has been to point out today, based on the time, do not expand discussed.

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SHANGHAI MARCH 2008

DR. FU YUNNING TO CHAIR GLOBAL INSTITUTE OF LOGISTICS IN CHINA

The Global Institute of Logistics is pleased to announce that Dr. FU Yuning, President of China Merchants Group Limited, and Chairman and CEO of China Merchant Holdings (International) Company Limited has been appointed as the Chairman of the China Chapter of the Global Institute of Logistics.